Stark Reality VS Wishful Dreams 1 – Climate Change
CO2 vs COP
Since the “Earth Summit” (UNFCCC) 32 years ago, when 154 countries signed an agreement to limit GHG emissions, we had yearly Conferences of the Parties (COP 1-28). The number of signatory countries rose to 200. Each COP has ended with glorious and memorable speeches about their tremendous efforts, achievements, pledges, and strategies to curb GHG emissions and fossil fuel use to limit Global Warming to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels by 2050.
We have amazing achievements in our climate mitigation efforts: A three-fold increase in renewable generation, a 10-fold reduction in solar panel prices, thousands of EVs took to the road and their infrastructure is developing fast, endless stretches of land and sea surface filled with wind generators, many trillions invested, and the list can go on forever.
Unfortunately, the strategies’ success has nothing to do with their efforts, the money they spent, the empty promises they uttered or the things they deceitfully decided to call “Sustainable” or “Net Zero”. The only relevant metric is “GHG parts per million” or “℃ of global warming”, and on these, we failed miserably so far.
I don’t mean the strategies aren’t good, only that they aren’t good enough if stopping Climate Change is what we’re after.
On the brink
Instead of limiting GHG emissions, we are actually witnessing an acceleration. According to the Paris Agreement, we are to reach a maximum of 1.5℃ by 2050, and here we are, 26 years earlier, nearly scratching the threshold with the upper temperature bound, on a trend that’s steeper than before we started to address the problem. It’s not like we’re in early phases. It’s been over 30 years of struggle.
All those science-based strategies, pledges, efforts, money, resources, environmental degradation, and land reallocated for renewable power generation, just to get the exact opposite outcomes? After three decades of utter failure, would it be wise to wait another three before we consider some alternatives to those strategies?
If you click on the image above, Mr. Johan Rockström will explain you all about the Climate Tipping Points and many other issues threatening our future.
To be or not to be?
Scientists say that continuing these trends will push temperatures beyond the Earth’s life support threshold, causing the sixth mass extinction. Fortunately, our planet has an amazing self-regulating ability that counteracts, to some extent, our species’ irresponsible and inconsiderate behaviour. However, they say that when we reach those terrifying tipping points, Nature will stop opposing our actions and help accelerate climate change. Some of those tipping points have been reached already. If our current strategies cannot mend things with Earth as an ally, how will we deal with them when Nature turns into our enemy?
Others say these scenarios are overly pessimistic, and they also have more or less objective arguments to support their statements. And although I strongly doubt it, something in me wishes they were right. But what if they are wrong and the pessimists are right? Once tipping points are reached there’s no way back. Shouldn’t we stay on the safe side and do something meaningful for the sake of our descendants?