The Objective View Upon Electrifying Transportation

The first steps to solve a problem are to define it, assess realistically the status quo, identify root causes, set the goals and relevant metrics and then periodically measure the results. Well, in addressing Climate Change by replacing Fossil Fuels with Renewables our policymakers failed to identify the real root causes, their metrics are totally irrelevant, and they are so focused on those metrics locally that they fail to notice that global fossil fuel use is still on the rise and the climate is still warming in an accelerated rate.

Media bombards us with good news about great achievements in green energy generation, and historical milestones,

like wanting to reassure us that the future is bright and green. Although this doesn’t match the statistics (below) from other accredited institutions by about 10x, and we’ll probably never know who’s right or wrong (I’d be grateful if you could email me if you know the answer), the trends look really encouraging.

I’d like to emphasise that I personally do not consider biomass a renewable energy source because although it releases only the amount of carbon accumulated while it is growing, it releases it NOW when we need it least, rather than gradually over decades or centuries. They’re probably less harmful than fossil fuels (even that’s debatable), however, not zero-emission, and I’m not the only one who thinks so:

When an unaware person (like most of us, mere mortals), sees these charts and articles he/she thinks that we’re nearly there, and can continue with business as usual, because the government and the guys from energy generation are keeping things under control.

Well, there’s never been a worse moment to convey this kind of reassuring, biased, and out-of-the-context information. We cannot afford to lay back and relax instead of searching for more effective solutions and strategies. Climate Tipping Points are around the corner, and we’re playing Russian roulette with our grandchildren’s future.

The True State of the Green Energy Transition

The most comprehensive and objective big picture of a country’s energy flow is the Sankey Chart. It’s a little bit intricate, but I will pick up only the parts relevant to our topic.

It is paramount to distinguish between the energy delivered through the grid and the entire energy demand. Most of those optimistic data refers to the mix utilised to generate the energy in the grid. However, most of the households’ energy comes from gas and that for transportation comes from Diesel and Petrol. In a Net Zero scenario, the entire energy will have to be electric and generated through renewables. So where are we on this journey?

All those glorious achievements presented at the beginning of this article are materialised in the light-pink line on the left showing 102.2 out of 2774.9 TWh =3.68%. Absolutely nothing spectacular, despite the efforts and praise. The other two pink lines are imports of renewable energy. This is all we achieved in 30 years of battle against fossil fuels and Climate Change, and we have only 26 years left to achieve Net Zero. What is the magnitude of the miracle we are expecting?

Now, if we look to the right, the pink areas (renewables) cover less than 35% of the domestic and industry and next to none of the transportation energy demand. Realistically, even if renewables will triple their rate over the next decades, they will barely cover the domestic and industry demand. Considering the population growth and its associated increase in energy demand, the task is even more difficult.

It is well known that solar and wind are less energy-intensive, so they will require vast stretches of land and sea surface for renewable generators (remember that we’re only at 3.68%, and there are already loads of them). They also need grids to collect their energy and convey it to the users. Nonetheless, because they are discontinuous, they require energy storage facilities, like car batteries, but thousands of times bigger, not only to keep transportation going, but everything. Will we have enough land to accommodate them? Will there be anything left to accommodate and feed the increasing population and those fleeing from seal level increase and desertification?

The demand for Transportation equals that of Domestic, Iron & Steel, and Other Industries combined. Maybe our children will be lucky enough to see Transportation in the UK entirely powered by renewables if we continue these trends and strategies. However, they will not be able to enjoy it because by then we’ll have passed the Climate Tipping Points and mankind and the environmental balance will be on a crash course.

OK, let’s be optimistic and hope that I am wrong and the policymakers bolstering that they’ll put us on track to Net Zero by 2050 in the UK are right. How relevant will that be in the Global context? Because our planet only has one atmosphere. Well, when we reach Net Zero in the UK because we are among the very few countries having the power and the wealth to do so, we’ll have solved a “staggering” 0.91% of the Global GNG Emissions.

The less privileged countries we share the atmosphere with, where 85% of the globe population is located has no chance to become Net Zero, because they don’t have the financial power on the one hand, and are busy manufacturing and shipping 80% of the goods we use in high-income countries, including our electric cars, renewable generators and storage facilities, and the food we can’t farm anymore because we use our land for power generation, on the other hand.

In our view, the solution is a combination of continuing to supersede fossil fuels with renewables, but in the meantime finding ways to reduce the energy demand. Technology advancements enable us to reduce it without impacting negatively our quality of life. We just need to shake off some old-school best practices and paradigms and see things from a different perspective.

For transportation, one such solution is Nymbel — a game-changing urban transit system that is faster, safer, more comfortable, and more affordable than electric cars but uses only 20% of the energy to get us from A to B. The 80% energy reduction comes with a proportional drop in cradle-to-grave emissions and also with an 80% lower financial and environmental cost to supply renewable energy for greening transportation along with its entire value chain.